Poll data provides cause for optimism.
January 23, 2012 Boris Johnson, Ken Livingstone, London mayoralty Comments Off
Based on my theory that Boris being behind in the polls will motivate his supporters to get campaigning, and thus ultimately be a good thing, today’s ComRes poll again showing Boris to be a couple of points behind Ken is no bad news. It also puts to bed the idea that last week’s poll could be ignored, as some suggested, “because it’s YouGov”. We are essentially looking at a neck-and-neck race, and should assume nothing else between now and polling day.
Whilst clearly Boris would like to be ahead – miles clear, preferably – if he has a look at the detail of the poll data, especially at the non-VI stuff, various figures should give him optimism. He leads Ken on ‘best plan for the future of the London economy’, ‘best plan to bring down crime’, ‘best able to change London for the better’, ‘best representative of London’s interests overseas’ and (by a massive margin) ‘able to get the best deal for London from central Government’. The only question on which he trails Ken relates to the ‘concerns of ordinary voters’, and he must do more to show that he gets their problems at what is a massively difficult time economically.
Elsewhere, 39% of Londoners don’t think Ken can deliver his pledge of a 7% fares cut, while a further 31% aren’t sure. Those figures, particularly the first one, are really striking given the policy is relatively nascent and will be subject to another three months of scrutiny before polling day. Ken will be concerned that such a huge proportion of voters are already sceptical about what is his flagship policy. Perhaps it’s time for him to admit how he would fund it…
