The trusty 54-46 image gets a second outing of the day, with Survation the latest polling company to put Boris 8% ahead of Ken. That means that in the last seven polls, Boris has led by 8% three times, by 6% three times and by 2% once. Two thoughts on this one:
Firstly, whilst the mayoral poll is good news for Boris, the London Assembly poll is less positive. The poll predicts the Tories will be reduced to eight Assembly Members – less than the nine required to pass the mayor’s budget. That would mean Boris needing to work with either UKIP or the Lib Dems (who are forecast to pick up two seats and three seats respectively) to get budgets passed. That scenario would be very good news for one of the two smaller parties – and is yet another reason for their supporters to give Boris their second preference votes, just as Nigel Farage has called for.
Secondly, it’s time for my near-daily paranoiac warning over the risk of complacency. Precisely one week before polling day in 2008, an Ipsos Mori poll gave Ken a 4% lead. A week later, he lost by 6%. Polls go up and polls go down, particularly in volatile economic times like these. Of course, it’s positive that Boris is ahead – you’d rather be in Team Boris than Team Ken right now – but the deal isn’t close to being sealed.